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At the "2018 China Plastics Industry Conference" held on June 27, many industry experts believed that the growth rate of the plastics industry has slowed down since 2018, and various transitional factors are pushing the plastics processing industry to move toward the middle and high-end, promoting plastics. The industry is developing in a high quality direction.
Declining industry profits, structural contradictions
From January to April 2018, the growth rate of the plastic products industry slowed down, with a total output of 20.4455 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.32%; the main business income was 623.519 billion yuan, an increase of 6.69%; the profit was 31.04 billion yuan, down 4.69 year-on-year. %; The main business income profit rate was 4.97%, down 0.59% year-on-year. The pressure of industry development has suddenly increased.
According to He Wei, vice president of the China National Light Industry Association, plastics, as an important export product of China, have frequently encountered international trade frictions in recent years, and the entire industry has been greatly affected.
"At present, the main contradiction in China's petrochemical industry is still the contradiction between structural oversupply and insufficient supply of high-end chemicals, and the growing contradiction between green environmental protection demand and backward industrial structure." Vice President and Secretary of China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation Zhao Jungui said that taking synthetic resin as an example, China's synthetic resin products are still dominated by low-end and medium-end materials, and the gap between high-end and differentiated products is still large. To solve the above problems, on the one hand, we must accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the traditional petrochemical industry, upgrade the level of traditional industries, maintain a moderate growth of reasonable scale, and take the development path of low-cost, differentiated and specialized; on the other hand, we must focus on global plastics. The stable development of the market and the further improvement of the entire plastics industry chain will accelerate the construction of a plastics market system and a plastics price system with Chinese characteristics and world influence.
Guo Yongxin, deputy secretary-general and spokesperson of the China National Light Industry Council, believes that although the industry faces many challenges, the prospects remain bright. Consumption upgrades will bring broad development space for the plastics processing industry. The comparative advantage of China's light industry in international competition still exists, and the “Belt and Road Initiative” will also bring significant opportunities for light industry such as plastics processing industry to go global.
Plastic futures variety development will continue to optimize
Li Zhengqiang, chairman of the Board of Directors of the University of Science and Technology, said that the petrochemical industry is an important area for the big business to serve the national strategy and serve the real economy. Dashang has listed three futures varieties of linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and polypropylene (PP). Dashang Institute is also actively adapting to the characteristics of spot varieties and changes in industrial structure, improving the delivery registration brand system, optimizing the layout of delivery warehouses, and promoting the deep integration of futures and spot markets. At present, there are 30 delivery warehouses for the Taishang Petrochemical Futures variety, and the delivery area extends from the central to the southwest. In 2017, the current price correlation of the three petrochemical varieties remained above 0.9. In 2017, there were 1,118 spot companies involved in the trading of petrochemicals in the Taishang Institute. According to preliminary estimates, more than 40% of the spot trade in plastics is hedged in the futures market. Unit customers gradually became the dominant force in the market, accounting for 23.5% and 47.6% of transactions and positions, respectively.
Chen Wei, director of the Industrial Products Department of Dachshang, said that in order to adapt to changes in the spot market, Dachshang will continue to promote the optimization of the contract system and further reduce the cost of industrial hedging. The first is to optimize the PVC futures delivery brand system. At the same time, appropriately expand the scope of the exemption brand and promote the convenience of futures delivery. The second is to promote the delivery brand system to LLDPE and PP varieties, and implement the exemption inspection system for mainstream brands recognized by some markets. The delivery brand is determined by the exchange according to the relevant delivery brand system. The third is to try the trader exemption system. Fourth, it is planned to increase the number of places such as Beijing as a delivery area. The fifth is to learn from the mature and standardized trader factory system of iron ore futures, and promote the construction of traders' factory warehouse in the plastic futures market, and improve the delivery system. The sixth is to promote contract continuous and active in recent months. Set up warehouse receipt service providers on plastic futures, encourage customers to participate in near-month contract transactions, and improve the efficiency of enterprise hedging.